Predicting

How to make predictions

Turn your insights into returns — pick a market on app.kash.bot, choose Yes or No, and confirm. That’s a prediction.

Understanding market odds

How prediction markets work

Every market card shows an implied chance — the market’s current estimate of how likely each outcome is, based on real money traded:

Implied chance

• Yes at 72% means the market currently implies a 72% chance the event happens
• The implied chance moves as people trade and new information emerges
• Buying an outcome pushes its implied chance up; selling pushes it down
• Markets can have more than two outcomes — the same logic applies to each one

Your potential returns

• When you set up a trade, the ticket shows an estimated payout if you win
• The lower the implied chance when you buy, the higher your estimated payout if you’re right
• The estimate can shift as others trade — the final payout is your pro-rata share of the market’s reserve at resolution
• If your outcome loses, your position is worth nothing at resolution
• Markets stay liquid — you can exit positions at any time at the current market price

Market dynamics

• Early predictions often get better prices before consensus forms
• Breaking news can rapidly shift the implied chance
• Large trades move prices more than small ones
• Arbitrage keeps prices roughly in line with real-world probabilities

How to make predictions

On the webapp

The primary way to trade — app.kash.bot

1. Find a market

   Browse trending markets, categories, or search on app.kash.bot. Each card shows the question and the current implied chance.

2. Pick a side

   Tap Yes or No (or the specific outcome in multi-outcome markets). The trade ticket opens.

3. Set your amount

   Enter how much USDC to spend. The ticket shows your shares and the estimated payout if you win before you confirm.

4. Confirm

   Confirm the trade — it executes gaslessly from your Kash wallet, and your position appears in your Portfolio immediately.

Trading from X

Optional: trade by replying on X (Twitter)

Kash can turn your X account into a trading interface. This is opt-in — enable it under Settings → Trading bot on app.kash.bot first. Trades go through Kash’s dedicated trading account — find the current handle on the @kash_bot profile.

Simple format

Reply to or repost any Kash market post with:

• “YES 50” — put $50 on the event happening
• “NO 100” — put $100 on it not happening
• “YES $25” — dollar sign optional, case doesn’t matter

What happens next

1. Kash confirms your prediction intent
2. Checks your wallet balance
3. Executes the trade at the current market price
4. Replies with your position details

Example interaction:

You: "YES 100"
Kash trading bot: "Bought Yes at 72% implied chance
           Total cost: $100
           Estimated payout if Yes wins: ~$137"

Market resolution

How outcomes are determined

Market close

• Trading stops at the market’s deadline
• Existing positions are locked in
• The market awaits resolution

Resolution and claiming

• The market’s oracle sets the winning outcome on-chain
• Winning positions become claimable in your Portfolio
• If a market can’t be resolved, it can be cancelled and positions become refundable

See the winning guide for exactly how payouts, claims, and refunds work.

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Prediction strategies

Information edge

• Research before predicting — read news, analyze trends, understand context
• Follow reliable sources — trust verified accounts and expert analysis
• Spot market inefficiencies — find implied chances that don’t match reality
• Act on breaking news — be first to capitalize on new information

Portfolio approach

• Diversify across markets — don’t put all eggs in one basket
• Don’t trade your entire balance — keep reserves for better opportunities
• Take profits regularly — lock in gains instead of letting them ride
• Size predictions to your confidence level

Social signals

• Watch successful predictors — follow proven track records on the leaderboards
• Monitor sentiment shifts — spot when opinion is changing before the price does
• Learn from patterns — recognize recurring market behaviors

Managing your positions

Track your positions

• Your Portfolio shows every open position, its current value, and live profit and loss
• Watch how the implied chance moves after your entry
• Plan your exit — sell early or hold to resolution

Sell before close

• Lock in profits early — secure gains before the market closes
• Cut losses — minimize damage when you’re clearly wrong
• Sell from the market page or your Portfolio at the current market price
• Sells pay a 1% protocol fee plus a 1% AMM fee

Add to a position

• Buy the same outcome again anytime to increase your stake
• Adding at a different price averages your effective entry
• No limit on how many trades you can place

Pro tips

• Early markets often have better prices before consensus forms
• Breaking news creates temporary price inefficiencies
• Start small while learning market dynamics — fees are 1% on buys, 1% + 1% on sells
• Join the market chat — every market has a discussion where traders share their reasoning

Every expert predictor started with their first prediction. Start small, learn the dynamics, and let your edge compound over time!

Finding markets

Discover markets to predict on

Winning & payouts

Understand winnings and payouts